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Economic forecasts and sovereign yields

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Author Info

  • António Afonso
  • Ana Sofia Nunes

Abstract

The European Commission releases twice a year economic forecasts for some macro and fiscal variables (GDP growth rate, inflation, budget balance, among others). In our research we will try to understand if the corrections made to these forecasts have an impact in sovereign yields. We will perform an econometric analysis in a panel of 15 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden), covering the period from 1999:1 until 2012:1, and after we analyse each country individually, on the basis of a SUR analysis. We find that corrections in the EC’s forecasts do impinge on the 10-year sovereign bond yields, particularly corrections in fiscal variables, but this impact is different across countries, being more pronounced in countries with less favourable economic conditions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2013/02.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp022013

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: macro forecasts; fiscal forecasts; sovereign yields.;

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References

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  1. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
  2. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Do Fiscal Imbalances Deteriorate Sovereign Debt Ratings ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1123-1134.
  3. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
  6. Antonio Afonso, 2010. "Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1437-1441.
  7. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
  8. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2003. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  9. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1233, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolff, Guntram B., 2004. "What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/36, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  12. Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2011. "Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 367-374.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  2. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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