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Sovereign credit ratings, capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets

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  • Kim, Suk-Joong
  • Wu, Eliza

Abstract

How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor's from 1995-2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framework, we examine financial sector development and the influence of sovereign credit ratings provision, controlling for various economic and corporate governance factors identified in the financial development literature. We find strong evidence that our sovereign credit rating measures do affect financial intermediary sector developments and capital flows. We find that i) long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are important for encouraging financial intermediary development and for attracting capital flows. ii) Long-term local currency ratings stimulate domestic market growth but discourage international capital flows. iii) Short-term ratings (both foreign and local currency denominated) retard all forms of financial developments and capital flows. There are important implications in this research for policy makers to encourage the provision of longer-term credit ratings to promote financial development in emerging economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

Volume (Year): 9 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 17-39

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:9:y:2008:i:1:p:17-39

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
  2. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2010. "Determinants of capital inflows into Asia: The relevance of contagion effects as push factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-284, September.
  3. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-577.
  4. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "The Extent and Causes of Sovereign Split Ratings," Working Papers 10008, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  5. Suk‐Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2011. "International Bank Flows To Emerging Markets: Influence Of Sovereign Credit Ratings And Their Regional Spillover Effects," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 331-364, 06.
  6. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
  7. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
  8. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2009. "Les déterminants des entrées de capitaux en Asie : quel rôle pour les stratégies de carry trade?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(3), pages 283-302, septembre.
  9. Basu, Kaushik & De, Supriyo & Ratha, Dilip & Timmer, Hans, 2013. "Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6641, The World Bank.
  10. Mina, Wasseem, 2013. "Political Risk Guarantees and Capital Flows: The Role of Bilateral Investment Treaties," MPRA Paper 51811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.

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