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Financial Crises and Political Crises

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Author Info
Roberto Chang () (Rutgers University)

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Abstract

Why are some financial crises associated with political crises and some are not? Does political instability cause financial fragility or the other way around? What are the implications of political distortions for policy in countries experiencing financial turmoil? This paper studies these and other questions in a formal model of debt, default, and financial crisis. A key assumption is that the default decision is made by a government that has superior information than the public about the social costs of default. Citizens, however, can dismiss the government, and overrule its default decision, at the cost of a political crisis. If there is a divergence between the objectives of the government and its people, political crisis may emerge in equilibrium. For this to be the case, the foreign debt must be large enough, and international reserves low. When this political equilibrium is seen as a part of a larger investment problem, I show that there are equilibria in which crises are "only financial," and equilibria in which default and political crises occur. In some cases, both kinds of equilibria coexist and, in this sense, a loss of confidence by foreign lenders can exacerbate the likelihood of a political crisis. If so, international intervention in financial markets may ensure financial and political stability at little cost. Policy analysis is delicate, however, and may require linking financial policies to political outcomes.

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Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 200229.

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Date of creation: 17 Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200229

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Related research
Keywords: NA; Financial Crises; Political Crises; Political economy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Roberto Chang, 1999. "Understanding recent crises in emerging markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 6-16. [Downloadable!]
  2. Garber, P.M. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers 588, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cukierman, Alex & Tommasi, Mariano, 1998. "When Does It Take a Nixon to Go to China?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 180-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Chang, Roberto & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "Fundamentals, beliefs, and financial contagion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 801-808, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark A. Carlson & Galina B. Hale, 2005. "Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Role-over," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1506, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Default, Electoral Uncertainty and the Choice of Exchange Regime," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 13, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Victor Vaugirard, 2005. "Crony Capitalism and Sovereign Default," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 77-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Roberto Chang, 2006. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2005. "Sovereign Risk : Constitutions Rule," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 731, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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