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Financial crises and political crises

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  • Chang, Roberto

Abstract

This paper is an analysis of the simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises and its consequences. It focuses on a small open economy that faces a debt default decision. Crucially, this decision is made by a government that has superior information than the public about the social costs of default. Citizens can dismiss the government, and overrule its default decision, at the cost of a political crisis. If there is a divergence between the objectives of the government and its people, a political crisis may emerge in equilibrium. For this to be the case, the foreign debt must be large enough, and international reserves low. When this political equilibrium is seen as a part of a larger investment problem, there are equilibria in which crises are "only financial," and equilibria in which both default and political crises occur. In some cases, these two kinds of equilibria coexist and, in this sense, a loss of confidence by foreign lenders can exacerbate the likelihood of a political crisis. If so, international intervention in financial markets may ensure financial and political stability at little cost.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 54 (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 2409-2420
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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:54:y:2007:i:8:p:2409-2420

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jeroen Loos).

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References

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  1. Roberto Chang, 1999. "Understanding recent crises in emerging markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 6-16.
  2. Garber, P.M. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers 588, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Mariano Tommasi, 1995. "Why Does it Take a Nixon to go to China?," UCLA Economics Working Papers 728, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  5. Chang, Roberto & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "Fundamentals, beliefs, and financial contagion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 801-808, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hasman, Augusto & López, Ángel L. & SamartIín, Margarita, 2011. "Government, taxes and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2761-2770, October.
  2. Mark A. Carlson & Galina B. Hale, 2005. "Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Role-over," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Sovereign risk: constitutions rule," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 62-85, January.
  4. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002," Working Papers Series 211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Carlo de Bassa Scheresberg, Francesco Passarelli, 2011. "Strategic Sovereign Defaults under International Sanctions," ISLA Working Papers 42, ISLA, Centre for research on Latin American Studies and Transition Economies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  7. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  8. Betty Daniel, 2008. "Private Sector Risk and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers 08-10, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  9. Victor Vaugirard, 2005. "Crony Capitalism and Sovereign Default," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 77-99, January.
  10. Roberto Chang, 2006. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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