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A Decade of Debt

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  • Carmen M. Reinhart

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Kenneth S. Rogoff

    ()
    (Harvard University)

Abstract

This book presents evidence that public debts in the advanced economies have surged in recent years to levels not recorded since the end of World War II, surpassing the heights reached during the First World War and the Great Depression. At the same time, private debt levels, particularly those of financial institutions and households, are in uncharted territory and are (in varying degrees) a contingent liability of the public sector in many countries. Historically, high leverage episodes have been associated with slower economic growth and a higher incidence of default or, more generally, restructuring of public and private debts. A more subtle form of debt restructuring in the guise of “financial repression” (which had its heyday during the tightly regulated Bretton Woods system) also importantly facilitated sharper and more rapid debt reduction than would have otherwise been the case from the late 1940s to the 1970s. It is conjectured here that the pressing needs of governments to reduce debt rollover risks and curb rising interest expenditures in light of the substantial debt overhang (combined with the widespread “official aversion” to explicit restructuring) are leading to a revival of financial repression—including more directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, and tighter regulation on cross-border capital movements.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Press: All Books with number 6222 and published in 2011.

ISBN: 978-0-88132-622-2
Handle: RePEc:iie:ppress:6222

Note: Policy Analyses in International Economics 95
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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," BIS Working Papers 363, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. V�gh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
  4. Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Banking Crises," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-07, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  5. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Strobbe, Francesco & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: A View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Is the US too big to fail?," MPRA Paper 12976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Sophia, 2003. "Greek Monetary Economics in Retrospect: The Adventures of the Drachma," Working Papers 02, Bank of Greece.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  12. Joseph E. Gagnon & Marc Hinterschweiger, 2011. "The Global Outlook for Government Debt over the Next 25 Years: Implications for the Economy and Public Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6215.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  15. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
  16. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  19. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/174, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  22. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
  23. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  24. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1995. "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 5209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Debt and Growth Revisited," MPRA Paper 24376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  27. Easterly, William R., 1989. "Fiscal adjustment and deficit financing during the debt crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 138, The World Bank.
  28. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Giovannini, Alberto & de Melo, Martha, 1993. "Government Revenue from Financial Repression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 953-63, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
  2. Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2011. "Europe's Growth Emergency," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1144, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  3. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "External debt management in Romania," MPRA Paper 52475, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Sep 2013.
  4. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2014. "What determines external debt tipping points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 215-225.
  5. Matthias Bank & Alexander Kupfer & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Performance-sensitive government bonds - A new proposal for sustainable sovereign debt management," Working Papers 2011-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  6. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  7. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Burietz, Aurore, 2013. "One crisis, two crises…the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 35-44.
  8. László Domokos, 2011. "Credibility and Flexibility.Changes in the Framework of Hungarian Public Finances," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 56(3), pages 291-302.
  9. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1625, European Central Bank.
  10. Garrick Hileman, 2012. "The seven mechanisms for achieving sovereign debt sustainability," Economic History Working Papers 42878, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  11. Holger Wolf, 2012. "Eurozone entry criteria after the crisis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6, March.
  12. £ukasz Goczek, 2011. "Federal policy responses to the 2007-2009 credit crunch in the US," Equilibrium, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 6, pages 27-42.
  13. Hal Hill, 2012. "The Best of Times and the Worst of Times: Indonesia and Economic Crises," Departmental Working Papers 2012-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  14. Ionita Rodica -Oana, 2013. "Economic And Financial Periods Induced Through Banking System," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 997-1009, July.
  15. Fritz Breuss, 2011. "EU-Wirtschaftsregierung: Eine notwendige aber nicht hinreichende Bedingung für das Überleben der Eurozone und des Euro," FIW Policy Brief series 012, FIW.

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