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On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?

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  • Rong Qian
  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Kenneth Rogoff

Abstract

This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to “graduate†from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation crises, twenty years is a significant market, but the distribution of recidivism has extremely fat tails. In the case of banking crises, it is unclear whether countries ever graduate. We also examine the more recent phenomenon of IMF programs, which sometimes result in “near misses†but sometimes end in default even after a program is instituted. The paper raises the important theoretical question of why countries experience serial default, and how they might graduate.

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Paper provided by Harvard University OpenScholar in its series Working Paper with number 14879.

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Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:14879

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
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  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
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  16. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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  19. Qian, Rong, 2012. "Why do some countries default more often than others ? the role of institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5993, The World Bank.
  20. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-19, March.
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  24. Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation Spillover Across Relationships with Enduring and Transient Beliefs: Reviving reputation Models of Debt," NBER Working Papers 5486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
  2. Taylor, Alan M, 2010. "Global finance after the crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 366-377.
  3. Richard J. Herring, 2013. "The Case for Rapid Resolution Plans," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 1-17, May.
  4. Qian, Rong, 2012. "Why do some countries default more often than others ? the role of institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5993, The World Bank.
  5. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-06, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  6. Kay Giesecke & Francis A. Longstaff & Stephen Schaefer & Ilya Strebulaev, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Corporate Default Crises: A Long-Term Perspective," NBER Working Papers 17854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard, 2013. "Currency wars not public debt may create a financial meltdown," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79862, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  8. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, 06.
  9. Mark Aguiar, 2011. "Comment on "On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25, pages 37-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Real exchange rate volatility, financial crises and nominal exchange regimes," Working Papers 12-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Qian, Rong & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Do countries “graduate” from crises? Some historical perspective," MPRA Paper 24761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.

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