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Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

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Author Info
Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Gita Gopinath

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Abstract

We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy and seeks to insure a risk averse domestic constituency. The expected tax on capital is shown to vary with the state of the economy, generating cyclicality in investment and debt in an environment where the first best capital stock is a constant. The government's lack of commitment induces a negative correlation between investment and the stock of government debt, a "debt overhang'' effect. If the government discounts the future at a rate higher than the market, then capital oscillates indefinitely at a level strictly below the first best. Debt relief is never Pareto improving and cannot affect the long-run level of investment. Further, restricting the government to a balanced budget can eliminate the cyclical distortion of investment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13353.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13353

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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  6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Thomas, Jonathan & Worrall, Tim, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(1), pages 81-108, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri, 2005. "Private and Public Risk Sharing in Economies with Limited Enforcement," 2005 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  14. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1992. "Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 250-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "Redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 59-83, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Michael Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2008. "Political Economy of Ramsey Taxation," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000002192, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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