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Optimal external debt and default

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Guimarães, Bernardo

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Abstract

This paper analyses whether sovereign default episodes can be seen as contingencies of optimal international lending contracts. The model considers a small open economy with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay debt. Taking first order approximations of Bellman equations, I derive analytical expressions for the equilibrium level of debt and the optimal debt contract. In this environment, debt relief generated by reasonable fluctuations in productivity is an order of magnitude below that generated by shocks to world interest rates. Debt relief prescribed by the model following the interest rate hikes of 1980-81 accounts for a substantial part of the debt forgiveness obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6035.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6035

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Related research
Keywords: default; optimal contract; sovereign debt; world interest rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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  3. Vivian Z. Yue, 2005. "Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2005 Meeting Papers 138, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Cohen, Daniel & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986. "Growth and external debt under risk of debt repudiation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 529-560, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Kehoe, Patrick J. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Competitive equilibria with limited enforcement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 184-206, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Atkeson, Andrew, 1991. "International Lending with Moral Hazard and Risk of Repudiation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1069-89, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Dotsey, Michael & Lantz, Carl & Scholl, Brian, 2003. " The Behavior of the Real Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 91-110, February.
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