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Reputation spillover across relationships: reviving reputation models of debt

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  • Harold L. Cole
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Abstract

A traditional explanation for why sovereign governments repay debts is that they want to keep good reputations so they can easily borrow more. Bulow and Rogoff show that this argument is invalid under two conditions: (i) there is a single debt relationship, and (ii) regardless of their past actions, governments can earn the (possibly state-contingent) market rate of return by saving abroad. Bulow and Rogoff conjecture that, even under condition (ii), in more general reputation models with multiple relationships and spillover across them, reputation may support debt. This paper shows what is needed for this conjecture to be true.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 209.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:209

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Keywords: Debt;

References

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  1. Fernandez, Raquel & Rosenthal, Robert W, 1990. "Strategic Models of Sovereign-Debt Renegotiations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 331-49, July.
  2. Harold L. Cole & James Dow & William B. English, 1994. "Default, settlement, and signalling: lending resumption in a reputational model of sovereign debt," Staff Report 180, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1982. "Predation, reputation, and entry deterrence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 280-312, August.
  4. Eaton, J. & Fernandez, R., 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Papers 37, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  5. Jaffee, Dwight M & Russell, Thomas, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-66, November.
  6. David Kreps & Robert Wilson, 1999. "Reputation and Imperfect Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 238, David K. Levine.
  7. Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation Spillover Across Relationships with Enduring and Transient Beliefs: Reviving reputation Models of Debt," NBER Working Papers 5486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 287-307, June.
  9. Atkeson, Andrew, 1991. "International Lending with Moral Hazard and Risk of Repudiation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1069-89, July.
  10. Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 2088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  12. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Douglas W. Diamond, 1998. "Reputation Acquisition in Debt Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 602, David K. Levine.
  14. Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 1992. "Sovereign Debt: Forgiving and Forgetting Reconsidered," Discussion Papers 1016, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Loren Brandt & Arthur Hosios, 2004. "Informal Credit in Village Economies: Contract Duration with Personal and Community Enforcement," Law and Economics 0410001, EconWPA.
  2. Kenneth M. Kletzer and Brian D. Wright., 1998. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-100, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820–1913," CEU Working Papers 2012_18, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 19 Sep 2012.
  4. Jean-Michel Severino & Pierre Jacquet, 2004. "Prêter, donner : comment aider ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 285-317.
  5. Adrian Penalver, 2004. "How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model," Bank of England working papers 215, Bank of England.
  6. Michael Kremer & Seema Jayachandran, 2002. "Odious Debt," NBER Working Papers 8953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael Kremer & Paras Mehta, 2000. "Globalization and International Public Finance," NBER Working Papers 7575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Peter Montiel & Samir Jahjah, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/60, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Karsten Jeske, 2005. "Private international debt with risk of repudiation," Working Paper 2001-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Helmut Krämer-Eis, 1998. "Evaluierung hoheitlicher Länderrisiken," Working Paper Series B 1998-01, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultïät.
  11. Guillermo Ordonez, 2008. "Essays on Learning and Macroeconomics," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002250, David K. Levine.
  12. Guillermo Ordonez, 2005. "Don't Ask Why Things Went Wrong: Nested Reputation and Scapegoating Inefficiency," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000988, David K. Levine.

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