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Sovereign default: which shocks matter?

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  • Bernardo Guimaraes

    (Fundacao Getulio Vargas)

Abstract

This paper analyses a small open economy that wants to borrow from abroad, cannot commit to repay debt but faces costs if it decides to default. The model generates analytical expressions for the impact of shocks on the incentive compatible level of debt. Debt reduction generated by severe output shocks is no more than a couple of percentage points. In contrast, shocks to world interest rates can substantially affect the incentive compatible level of debt. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:09-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2010.10.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Foley‐Fisher & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2013. "U.S. Real Interest Rates and Default Risk in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 967-975, August.
    2. Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2015. "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 68-82.
    3. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    4. Arazmuradov, Annageldy, 2016. "Assessing sovereign debt default by efficiency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 100-113.
    5. Carolina Achury & Christos Koulovatianos & John Tsoukalas, 2011. "External Sovereign Debt in a Monetary Union: Bailouts and the Role of Corruption," Discussion Papers 11/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Johri, Alok & Khan, Shahed & Sosa-Padilla, César, 2022. "Interest rate uncertainty and sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Kalamov, Zarko Y. & Zimmermann, Karl J., 2023. "GDP-linked bonds and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2006, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    11. Dominik Thaler, 2021. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Exclusion from International Capital Markets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1401-1427.
    12. Victor Filipe Martins da Rocha & Yiannis Vailakis, 2014. "Self-enforcing Debt, Reputation, and the Role of Interest Rates," Working Papers hal-01097114, HAL.
    13. Michel Guillard & Hubert Kempf (Ecole Normale de Cachan & université Paris-Saclay), 2016. "Sovereign default and public debt sustainability," EcoMod2016 9696, EcoMod.
    14. Nathan Foley-Fisher, 2012. "The timing of sovereign defaults over electoral terms," International Finance Discussion Papers 1047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Default; World interest rates; Output shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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