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How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model

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  • Adrian Penalver

Abstract

This paper presents a model to explain how IMF programmes can catalyse private capital flows following a financial crisis, a concept that was at the heart of the IMF's strategy for dealing with capital account crises in the late 1990s. In the model, the IMF lends funds below the prevailing market interest rate and it is this subsidy that induces the borrowing country to exert adjustment effort to avoid default. By preventing default, future marginal rates of return on investment are kept high, thereby encouraging private capital flows. The IMF may also have a signalling role if it has superior information about debtor type and can affect the interest rate charged in the immediate aftermath of a crisis. In practice, however, IMF programmes based on the catalytic approach have been disappointing and actual private capital flows have been considerably below those projected. Therefore, the paper also considers how capital flows derived from the model are sensitive to the assumptions made. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of the analysis for IMF programme design.

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  • Adrian Penalver, 2004. "How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model," Bank of England working papers 215, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Saravia, Diego, 2010. "On the role and effects of IMF seniority," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1024-1044, October.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2006. "The IMF in a world of private capital markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1335-1357, May.
    3. Chungshik Moon & Byungwon Woo, 2022. "Curse of friendship: IMF programme, friendship with the United States and foreign direct investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2188-2221, July.
    4. J. Brandes & Tobias Schüle, 2008. "IMF’s assistance: Devil’s kiss or guardian angel?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 63-86, June.
    5. Koen J. M. van der Veer & Eelke de Jong, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programmes: Stimulating Capital to Non-defaulting Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 375-395, April.
    6. Francesca Viani, 2005. "International Monetary Fund Resources and Contagion Mechanisms: A Hypothesis," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(6), pages 69-103, November-.
    7. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2008. "A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality," IMF Working Papers 2008/236, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan & Mr. Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 2006/075, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2006. "Catalytic finance: When does it work?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 161-177, September.
    10. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2009. "The IMF's role in mobilizing private capital flows: are there grounds for catalytic conversion?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1705-1708.
    11. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2008. "Catalysing private capital flows and IMF programs: some remaining questions," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 37-43.
    12. Byungwon Woo, 2013. "Conditional on Conditionality: IMF Program Design and Foreign Direct Investment," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 292-315, July.
    13. Spiros Bougheas & Indraneel Dasgupta & Oliver Morrissey, 2011. "Repayment versus Investment Conditions and Exclusivity in Lending Contracts," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 167(2), pages 247-265, June.
    14. Mr. Jun I Kim, 2006. "IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2006/156, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2007. "The Analysis of Catalysis: IMF Programs and Private Capital Flows," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0107, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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