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A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises

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  • Reinhart, Carmen

Abstract

We document that the global scope and depth of the crisis the began with the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the summer of 2007 is unprecedented in the post World War II era and, as such, the most relevant comparison benchmark is the Great Depression (or the Great Contraction, as dubbed by Friedman and Schwartz, 1963) of the 1930s. Some of the similarities between these two global episodes are examined but the analysis of the aftermath of severe financial crises is extended to also include the most severe post-WWII crises as well. As to the causes of these great crises, we focus on those factors that are common across time and geography. We discriminate between root causes of the crises, recurring crises symptoms, and common features (such as misguided financial regulation or inadequate supervision) which serve as amplifiers of the boom-bust cycle. There are recurring temporal patterns in the boom-bust cycle and their broad sequencing is analyzed.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8742.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8742

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Keywords: debt; default; financial crises; financial repression;

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  3. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  4. Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
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Cited by:
  1. A. Kara, 2013. "Monetary Policy after the Global Crisis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 51-74, March.
  2. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "Controversial and novel features of the Eurozone crisis as a balance of payment crisis," Department of Economics University of Siena 640, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  3. A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Turkey After the Global Crisis," Working Papers 1217, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2013. "Is the Italian Public Debt Really Unsustainable? An Historical Comparison (1861-2010)," CESifo Working Paper Series 4185, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Uhlig, Harald, 2013. "Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 9606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.

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