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Debt Overhangs: Past and Present

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  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Vincent R. Reinhart
  • Kenneth S. Rogoff

Abstract

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90% for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and other more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with growth over one percent lower than during other periods. Perhaps the most striking new finding here is the duration of the average debt overhang episode. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. Five of the six shorter episodes were immediately after World Wars I and II. Across all 26 cases, the average duration in years is about 23 years. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. We find that growth effects are significant even in the many episodes where debtor countries were able to secure continual access to capital markets at relatively low real interest rates. That is, growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18015.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18015

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  1. Quote of the Week
    by Jonathan Finegold in Economic Thought on 2012-11-04 10:00:45
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Cited by:
  1. Döhrn, Roland & Gebhardt, Heinz, 2013. "Die fiskalischen Kosten der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 198, University of Duisburg-Essen, Faculty for Economics and Business Administration.
  2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Zur Debatte »Sparen oder Wachstum«," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 07-08, 05.
  3. Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," Working Papers 2012002, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
  5. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "Does Euro Area Membership Affect the Relation between GDP Growth and Public Debt?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1249, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Deniz Baglan & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "Government debt and macroeconomic activity: a predictive analysis for advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "Financial Globalisation and the Crisis," BIS Working Papers 397, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Francisco Comín, 2012. "Default, rescheduling and inflation : debt crisis in Spain during the 19th and 20th centuries," Working Papers in Economic History wp12-06, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.

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