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Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead

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  • Bevilaqua, Afonso S
  • Garcia, Marcio G P

Abstract

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefly reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments--which, until 1998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact of the currency depreciation on the dollar-indexed and the external debt--and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, inflation-linked bonds. Copyright @ 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 15-35

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:7:y:2002:i:1:p:15-35

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  1. Robert T. Price, 1997. "The Rationale and Design of Inflation-Indexed Bonds," IMF Working Papers 97/12, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Alessandro Missale, 2004. "Public Debt Management in Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires, 2006. "Uma Análise de Credibilidade na Política Fiscal Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1222, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  4. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  5. Anastasia Guscina, 2008. "Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/205, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Yu Hsing, 2003. "Impact of external debt and other macroeconomic policies on output in Brazil: a var approach," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 97-108, December.
  7. World Bank, 2002. "Brazil : The New Growth Agenda, Volume 1. Policy Briefing," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15289, The World Bank.

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