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A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data

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Marcio Garcia
Roberto Rigobon

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Abstract

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10336.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10336

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Giavazzi, Francesco & Missale, Alessandro, 2001. "How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bevilaqua, Afonso S & Garcia, Marcio G P, 2002. "Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Didier, 2000. "Very high interest rates and the cousin risks: Brazil during the Real Plan," Textos para discussão 441, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  1. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "La Sostenibilidad de Deuda frente a Riesgo de Catastrofes Naturales," RES Working Papers 4523, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hans Genberg & Astrit Sulstarova, 2005. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Debt Dynamics, and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads," Working Papers 182005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Issouf Samake & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kevin Joseph Carey & Evan Tanner, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 05/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carmen Altés, 2008. "Turismo y desarrollo en México," RES Working Papers 2008, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/268, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paloma Acevedo & Enrique Alberola & Carmen Broto, 2007. "Local debt expansion… vulnerability reduction? An assessment for six crises-prone countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0733, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2006. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: a quantile autoregression approach," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 631, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Mauro, 2005. "Pricing Growth-Indexed Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/216, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Charles Wyplosz, 2005. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives," HEI Working Papers 03-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 30 Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Cláudio H. dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Discussion Papers 1337, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "Debt Sustainability under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," RES Working Papers 4522, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Julian di Giovanni & E. H. Gardner, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 08/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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