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A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data

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  • Marcio Garcia
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10336.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10336.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Publication status: published as Giavazzi, Francesco, Ilan Goldfajn, and Santiago Herrera (eds.) Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience: 1999 to 2003. Cambridge ,MA: MIT Press, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10336

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  1. Márcio gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcus Vinicius Ferrero Valpassos, 1998. "Capital flows, capital controls and currency crisis: the case of Brazil in the nineties," Textos para discussão 389, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Giavazzi, Francesco & Missale, Alessandro, 2001. "How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2002. "Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions," Textos para discussão 464, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  4. Bevilaqua, Alfonso S. & Garcia, Marcio G. P., 2000. "Debt management in Brazil : evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2402, The World Bank.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
  8. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Didier, 2000. "Very high interest rates and the cousin risks: Brazil during the Real Plan," Textos para discussão 441, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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