A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data
AbstractIn this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10336.
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Giavazzi, Francesco, Ilan Goldfajn, and Santiago Herrera (eds.) Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience: 1999 to 2003. Cambridge ,MA: MIT Press, 2005.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussÃ£o 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-03-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-03-07 (Finance)
- NEP-LAM-2004-03-07 (Central & South America)
- NEP-MAC-2004-03-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2004-03-07 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bevilaqua, Afonso S & Garcia, Marcio G P, 2002.
"Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January.
- Bevilaqua, Alfonso S. & Garcia, Marcio G. P., 2000. "Debt management in Brazil : evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2402, The World Bank.
- Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1999. "Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Textos para discussÃ£o 408, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & Giavazzi, Francesco & Missale, Alessandro, 2001.
"How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Missale, Alessandro & Giavazzi, Francesco & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. " How Is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-69, September.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Francesco Giavazzi & Alessandro Missale, . "How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Working Papers 174, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Eliane A. Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997.
"Capital Flows to Brazil-The Endogeneity of Capital Controls,"
IMF Working Papers
97/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Didier, 2000. "Very high interest rates and the cousin risks: Brazil during the Real Plan," Textos para discussÃ£o 441, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2002. "Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions," Textos para discussÃ£o 464, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003.
13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
- Márcio gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcus Vinicius Ferrero Valpassos, 1998. "Capital flows, capital controls and currency crisis: the case of Brazil in the nineties," Textos para discussÃ£o 389, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.