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How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations

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  • Benigno, Pierpaolo
  • Giavazzi, Francesco
  • Missale, Alessandro

Abstract

This Paper provides evidence on the behaviour of public debt managers during fiscal stabilizations. Such episodes provide valuable information on the way debt instruments are chosen because they allow the problem of policymakers' expectations of interest rates not generally being observable to be overcome. We find that governments increase the share of fixed-rate long-term debt denominated in the domestic currency, causing the conditional volatility of short-term interest rates to become higher, long-term interest rates to become lower, and the fall in long-term rates, that follows the announcement of the stabilization program, to become stronger. In contrast, conventional measures of the relative cost of issuing long-term debt, such as the long-short interest-rate spread, are not significant. This evidence suggests that debt managers tend to prefer long to short maturity debt because they are concerned with the risk of refinancing at higher than expected interest rates. However, when long-term rates are high relative to their expectations, they issue short maturity debt to minimize borrowing costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2655.

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Date of creation: Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2655

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Keywords: Credibility; Debt Maturity; Public Debt Management; Stabilization;

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Cited by:
  1. Sieg, Gernot & Stegemann, Ulrike, 2009. "Strategic debt management within the stability and growth pact," Economics Department Working Paper Series 5, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  2. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  3. Begona Dominguez Manzano, 2005. "Reputation in a Model with a Limited Debt Structure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 600-622, July.
  4. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
  5. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Interactions of sovereign debt management with monetary conditions and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 42, July.
  6. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2014. "Social Security And Public Debt: Empirical Evidence For The Brazilian Economy," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 066, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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