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Uma Análise de Credibilidade na Política Fiscal Brasileira

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  • Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires

Abstract

The paper aims to study fiscal data of primary surplus expectation and debt expectation. The results showed gains of credibility in the Brazilian fiscal policy conduct because financial markets expecting less debt for near future. In addition, expectations that debt will grow up raises expectations that primary surplus will grow up too.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1222.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1222

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  1. Eisner, Robert, 1989. "Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 73-93, Spring.
  2. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1999. "Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Textos para discussão 408, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  3. Fabiana Rocha, 1997. "Long-Run Limits on the Brazilian Government Debt," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 51(4), pages 447-470, October.
  4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
  5. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  7. Issler, Joao Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2000. "Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-1992," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 131-147, June.
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