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The Maturity and Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt

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  • Yan Bai
  • Seon Tae Kim
  • Gabriel P. Mihalache

Abstract

This paper studies the maturity and stream of payments of sovereign debt. Using Bloomberg bond data for eleven emerging economies, we document that countries react to crises by issuing debt with shortened maturity but back-load payment schedules. To account for this pattern, we develop a sovereign default model with an endogenous choice of debt maturity and payment schedule. During recessions, the country prefers its payments to be more back-loaded—delaying relatively larger payments—to smooth consumption. However, such a back-loaded schedule is expensive given that later payments carry higher default risk. To reduce borrowing costs, the country optimally shortens maturity. When calibrated to the Brazilian data, the model can rationalize the observed patterns of maturity and payment schedule, as an optimal trade-off between consumption smoothing and endogenous borrowing cost.

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  • Yan Bai & Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2015. "The Maturity and Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 20896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20896
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    Cited by:

    1. Eidam, Frederik, 2020. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ESRB Working Paper Series 110, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    4. Crosignani, Matteo & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Fonseca, Luís, 2020. "The (Unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 97-112.
    5. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Emircan Yurdagul & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Sanchez, 2018. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Approach," 2018 Meeting Papers 1273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Juan M. Sánchez & Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 26-77, April.
    7. Kim, Jiseob & Lim, Taejun, 2021. "Cost-effective mortgage modification program to reduce mortgage defaults," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 220-241.
    8. Luís Fonseca, 2015. "Central Bank Interventions, Demand for Collateral, and Sovereign Borrowing Costs," Working Papers w201509, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Erce, Aitor & Uy, Timothy, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 13292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2020. "News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2018. "Sovereign default and maturity choice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 72-85.
    13. Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul, 2014. "Sovereign Default and the Choice of Maturity," Working Papers 2014-31, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4343-4377, December.
    15. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Eidam, Frederik, 2018. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-025, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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