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Managers, Investors, and Crises: Mutual Fund Strategies in Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Graciela Kaminsky
Richard K. Lyons
Sergio Schmukler

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Abstract

This paper addresses the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets. The data set we develop permits analysis of these strategies at the level of individual portfolios. Methodoloically, a novel feature is our disentangling the behavior of managers from that of underlying investors. For both managers and investors, we strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading: funds' momentum trading is positive they systematically buy winners and sell losers. Contemporaneous momentum trading (buying current winners and selling current losers) is stronger during crises, and stronger for fund investors than for fund managers. Lagged momentum trading (buying past winners and selling past losers) is stronger during non-crisis, and stronger for fund managers. Investors also engage in contagion trading, i.e., they sell assets from one country when asset prices fall in another.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7855.

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Date of creation: Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7855

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Woochan Kim & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999. "Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and During a Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 210, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1998. "International Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 267-284, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  9. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lehmann, Bruce N, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, . "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Jessica D. Tjornhom, 2002. "Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 9079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Gaston R. Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/174, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion and Portfolio Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Sergio L. Schmukler & Tatiana Didier & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Vanishing Contagion?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 06/01, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: The Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms," NBER Working Papers 9053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Li L. Ong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2005. "U.S. Mutual Fund Retail Investors in International Equity Markets: Is the Tail Wagging the Dog?," IMF Working Papers 05/162, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Mutual fund investment in emerging markets - an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2529, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fernando A. Broner & R. Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Masahiro Kawai & Richard Newfarmer & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Financial Crises: Nine Lessons From East Asia," Finance Working Papers 482, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Eduardo Borensztein & R. Gaston Gelos, 2003. "A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer, 2000. "Style Investing," NBER Working Papers 8039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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