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Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency

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Author Info
Bruce N. Lehmann
Abstract

Much of the theoretical basis for current monetary and financial theory rests on the economic efficiency of financial markets. Not surprisingly, considerable effort has been expended to test the efficient markets hypothesis, usually by examination of the predictability of equity returns. Unfortunately, there are two competing explanations of the presence of such predictable variation: (1)market inefficiency, and stock price 'overreaction' due to speculative 'fads' and (2) predictable changes in expected security returns associated with forecasted changes in market or individual security 'fundamentals?. These explanations can be distinguished by examining equity returns over short time intervals since there should be negligible systematic changes in the fundamental valuation of individual firms over intervals like a week in an efficient market. This study finds sharp evidence of market inefficiency in the form of systematic tendencies for current 'winners' and 'losers' in one week to experience sizeable return reversals over the subsequent week in a way that reflect apparent arbitrage profits. These measured arbitrage profits persist after corrections for the mismeasurement of security returns because of thin trading and bid-ask spreads and for plausible levels of transactions costs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2533.

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Date of creation: Apr 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2533

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  1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 0565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Blume, Marshall E. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Biases in computed returns : An application to the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-404, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices," NBER Working Papers 0489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruce D. Grundy & J. Spencer Martin, . "Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the Source of Rewards to Momentum Investing," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Craig Holden & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "New Events, Information Acquisition, and Serial Correlation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1115, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yangru Wu, 2004. "Momentum Trading, Mean Reveral and Overration in Chinese Stock Market," Working Papers 232004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. I. Roko & M. Gilli, 2008. "Using economic and financial information for stock selection," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 317-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 1992. "Overreaction, Delayed Reaction, and Contrarian Profits," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1159, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Louis K. C. Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Josef Lakonishok, 1995. "Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 5375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. F. DePenya & L. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Testing of nonstationary cycles in financial time series data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 47-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Managers, investors, and crises : mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2399, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Turan Bali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "The Intertemporal Relation between Expected Return and Risk on Currency," TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0909, TUSIAD-Koc University Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert J. Shiller, 1998. "Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System," NBER Working Papers 6375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 2000. "An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management," Working Paper Series WP-00-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Time-Varying Betas and Asymmetric Effect of News: Empirical Analysis of Blue Chip Stocks," NBER Working Papers 7330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaría, 2009. "Momentum, market states and investor behavior," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 105-130, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2009. "Maxing Out: Stocks as Lotteries and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 14804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1991. "Asset Pricing and Intrinsic Values: A Review Essay," NBER Working Papers 3873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Angelos Kanas & George Kouretas, 2001. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," Working Papers 0101, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan Mingelgrin, . "The High Volume Return Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Tro Kortian, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Asset Price Formation: A Survey of Recent Theoretical Literature," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9501, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  20. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 1990. "Short Horizon Reversals and the Bid-Ask Spread," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1183, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  21. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1995. "Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 5027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 1994. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," NBER Working Papers 4720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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