Rational Herd Behavior and the Globalization of Securities Markets
AbstractThis paper shows that globalization of securities markets exacerbates the volatility of capital flows by strengthening incentives for herding behavior. This is a prediction of a mean-variance portfolio optimization model with imperfect information, in which investors acquire country-specific expertise at a fixed cost and incur variable reputational costs. The model produces equilibria in which incentives to confirm rumors decrease with globalization. Simulations based on equity markets data and country credit ratings suggest that herd behavior can induce large capital outflows from emerging markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97-26.
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
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Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/
Other versions of this item:
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1997. "Rational herd behavior and the globalization of securities markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 120, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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