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Predicting currency fluctuations and crises - do resident firms have an informational advantage?

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Author Info
Kaufmann, Daniel
Mehrez, Gil
Schmukler, Sergio

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Abstract

The authors investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work. They propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters. They rest their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set, the Global Competitiveness Survey. The survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside. They find that local managers do have useful private information. Local managers'responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate, which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials. They find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the Republic of Korea, Russia, and Thailand, but not those in Indonesia and Malaysia. Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2259.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2259

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Keywords: ICT Policy and Strategies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Public Health Promotion; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Financial Intermediation; Environmental Economics&Policies; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; ICT Policy and Strategies;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Woochan Kim & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999. "Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and during a Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 210, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1998. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Finance 9805003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1997. "Rational herd behavior and the globalization of securities markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 120, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 1-136. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregor H & Schneider, Martin, 2006. "Global Private Information in International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dennis P J Botman & Cees G H Diks, 2002. "Location of Investors and Capital Flight," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-013/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firms' Changes in Financial Leverage," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 688, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kee-Hong Bae & Rene M. Stulz & Hongping Tan, 2005. "Do Local Analysts Know More? A Cross-Country Study of the Performance of Local Analysts and Foreign Analysts," NBER Working Papers 11697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bae, Kee-Hong & Stulz, Rene M. & Tan, Hongping, 2006. "Do Local Analysts Know More? A Cross-Country Study of the Performance of Local Analysts and Foreign Analysts," Working Paper Series 2005-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tomas Dvorak, 2001. "Gross Capital Flows and Asymmetric Information," Department of Economics Working Papers 189, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
  8. Frenkel, Michael & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-283, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," International Finance 0405006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Dennis P. J. Botman & Cees G. H. Diks, 2005. "The Role of Domestic and Foreign Investors in a Simple Model of Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 05/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marcelo Pinheiro, 2005. "Informational asymmetries and a multiplier effect on price correlation and trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 395-421, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mehrez, Gil & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2000. "Transparency, liberalization, and banking crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2286, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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