Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jongen, Ron
  • Verschoor, Willem F.C.
  • Wolff, Christian C.P.
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.

Abstract

This paper combines survey forecasts with a heterogeneous agent model to examine the dispersion of expectations of participants in the foreign exchange market. We find distinct variations in the level of dispersion and document that dispersion arises because of the combined effect of market participants holding private information and attaching different weights to fundamental, technical, and carry trade analyses. We estimate a heterogeneous agent model on the survey forecasts and show that the weight attached to the three forecast rules is adjusted over time in response to the relative importance of the rules in the actual foreign exchange market. The weights are related to market circumstances; the switching model is finally shown to outperform the random walk model in an out-of-sample forecast exercise.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188912000206
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 719-735

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:5:p:719-735

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Chartists; Fundamentalists; Exchange rate forecasts; Heterogeneity; Dispersion of expectations; Survey data; Carry trade; Heterogeneous agent model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
  2. Bloomfield, Robert & Hales, Jeffrey, 2002. "Predicting the next step of a random walk: experimental evidence of regime-shifting beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 397-414, September.
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  4. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  5. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
  6. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Switching Between Expectation Processes in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Probabilistic Approach Using Survey Data," Post-Print halshs-00081586, HAL.
  7. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. " Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
  8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  10. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  11. Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2009. "Behavioural heterogeneity and shift-contagion: Evidence from the Asian crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1929-1944, November.
  13. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
  14. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2011. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments (revised version of WP 09-09)," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  15. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  16. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, 02.
  17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  18. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  19. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  21. Drut, Bastien & Brière, Marie, 2009. "The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7743, Paris Dauphine University.
  22. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  23. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
  24. Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  25. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-321, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  26. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  27. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  28. Frijns, Bart & Lehnert, Thorsten & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the option market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2273-2287, November.
  29. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
  30. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Expectations, Risk and Uncertainty in the Foreign Exchange Market: Some Results Based on Survey Data," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 142-53, June.
  32. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
  33. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. " Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
  34. Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-43, July.
  35. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  36. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  38. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  39. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
  40. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
  42. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
  43. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
  2. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," DNB Working Papers 411, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
  4. He, Kaijian & Wang, Lijun & Zou, Yingchao & Lai, Kin Keung, 2014. "Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 62-71.
  5. Anufriev, M. & Tuinstra, J. & Bao, T., 2013. "Fund Choice Behavior and Estimation of Switching Models: An Experiment," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
  7. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Maria Pericoli & Marco Pistagnesi, 2013. "Inefficiency in Survey Exchange Rates Forecasts," Working Papers 1/13, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  8. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:5:p:719-735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.