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Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? : identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey

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Lux, Thomas
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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/4309/1/EWP-2008-07.pdf
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Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2008,07.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:7327

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Web page: http://www.wiso.uni-kiel.de/econ/

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Related research
Keywords: business climate ; business cycle forecasts ; opinion formation ; social interactions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jones, Andrew M., 1994. "Health, addiction, social interaction and the decision to quit smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 93-110, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lee, Lung-fei, 2007. "Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 333-374, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Glaeser, Edward L & Sacerdote, Bruce & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 507-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Chen, Ping, 2002. "Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers versus rational expectations arbitrage," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 327-344, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  9. Brian Krauth, 2006. "Social interactions in small groups," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 414-433, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sarah Gelper & Aurélie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. J. Scheinkman & U. Horst, 2003. "Equilibria in Systems of Social Interactions," Princeton Economic Theory Working Papers d5a39039d26e0b08775b915bf, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "A Noise Trader Model As A Generator Of Apparent Financial Power Laws And Long Memory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 80-101, November. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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