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Expectations, Risk and Uncertainty in the Foreign Exchange Market: Some Results Based on Survey Data

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  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

This paper utilizes monthly survey data on investment managers' exchange rate expectations in order to shed some light on the standard rejection of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and risk neutrality in foreign exchange markets. The results, in general, suggest that it is the failure of the assumption of risk neutrality which is primarily responsible. The paper also utilizes the survey data to test two recently advanced models of the risk premium--the ARCH and DYMIMIC models--and to examine the relationship between risk and uncertainty. Copyright 1989 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.

Volume (Year): 57 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 142-53

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:57:y:1989:i:2:p:142-53

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Cited by:
  1. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  2. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, A. & Morley, B., 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 24072, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  3. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
  4. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  5. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
  6. Michael Schröder & Robert Dornau, 2000. "Do Forecasters use Monetary Models? An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Expectations," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-14, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  7. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
    [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided to
    ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  8. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, 02.
  9. Christian Wolff & Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2009. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-01, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  10. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar," MPRA Paper 33167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.
  11. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
  12. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 438-448, December.
  13. Hélène Raymond & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, 1996. "Les erreurs de prévision de change ont-elles des caractéristiques hétérogènes ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 137-157.
  14. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Scandinavian forward discount bias risk premia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 65-72, October.
  15. repec:eid:wpaper:02/11 is not listed on IDEAS

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