Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kristin Forbes

Abstract

This paper uses firm-level information to evaluate how crises are transmitted internationally. It constructs a new data set of financial statistics, industry information, geographic data, and stock returns for over 10,000 companies in 46 countries to test what types of firms were most affected by the East Asian and Russian crises. Results suggest that a product-competitiveness and income effect were both important transmission mechanisms during the later part of the Asian crisis and the Russian crisis. For example, if a firm's main product line competed with a major East Asian export, the firm's average daily abnormal stock return was 13 percent lower during the Asian crisis. The magnitude of this product competitiveness effect during the Russian crisis was 32 percent. Results suggest that a credit crunch was not important during either crisis. Finally, country-specific effects, which are poorly explained by macroeconomic and corporate governance variables, can have a larger impact than all other transmission mechanisms combined.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7807.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7807.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7807

Note: IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Managers, investors, and crises : mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2399, The World Bank.
  5. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1.
  6. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  10. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994. "Contagious speculative attacks," BIS Working Papers 22, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  12. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
  14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2094, The World Bank.
  15. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1996. "The international transmission of financial shocks: the case of Japan," Working Papers 96-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  16. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Robert J. Shiller, 1995. "Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1092, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 1999. "Banks, the IMF, and the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 7361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Falkenstein, Eric G, 1996. " Preferences for Stock Characteristics as Revealed by Mutual Fund Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 111-35, March.
  22. Simon Johnson & Peter Boone & Alasdair Breach & Eric Friedman, 1999. "Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 297, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  23. Kim, Hyun E., 1999. "Was the credit channel a key monetary transmission mechanism following the recent financial crisis in the Republic of Korea?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2103, The World Bank.
  24. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  26. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1997. "Rational Herd Behavior and the Globalization of Securities Markets," Working Papers 97-26, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," NBER Working Papers 6843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  29. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Klapper, Leora, 1999. "Resolution of corporate distress - evidence from East Asia's financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2133, The World Bank.
  30. Atish R. Ghosh & Swart R. Ghosh, 1999. "East Asia in the Aftermath," IMF Working Papers 99/38, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  32. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  33. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.