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The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally

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Author Info
Kristin Forbes

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Abstract

This paper uses firm-level information to evaluate how crises are transmitted internationally. It constructs a new data set of financial statistics, industry information, geographic data, and stock returns for over 10,000 companies in 46 countries to test what types of firms were most affected by the East Asian and Russian crises. Results suggest that a product-competitiveness and income effect were both important transmission mechanisms during the later part of the Asian crisis and the Russian crisis. For example, if a firm's main product line competed with a major East Asian export, the firm's average daily abnormal stock return was 13 percent lower during the Asian crisis. The magnitude of this product competitiveness effect during the Russian crisis was 32 percent. Results suggest that a credit crunch was not important during either crisis. Finally, country-specific effects, which are poorly explained by macroeconomic and corporate governance variables, can have a larger impact than all other transmission mechanisms combined.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7807.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7807

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F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  2. Kristin Forbes & Menzie Chinn, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1041, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2000. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 7885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Forbes, Kristin J., 2003. "One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smaller Traded Firms," Working papers 4273-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade any Importance in the Transmission of Currency Shocks?," Economics Working Papers 028, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2002. "High Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia," NBER Working Papers 9376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2005. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Japan," IMF Working Papers 05/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Berkman, Henk & Cole, Rebel & Fu, Lawrence, 2008. "Political connections and minority-shareholder protection: Evidence from securities-market regulation in China," MPRA Paper 8087, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: The Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms," NBER Working Papers 9053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Forbes, Kristin J. & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2002. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR," Working papers 4242-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  14. Eric Santor, 2003. "Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 03-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Central Bank of Chile Working Group for the 11th APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting, 2004. "Institution Building in a World of Free and Volatile Capital Flows: A Case Study of Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 12, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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