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How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000

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Author Info
Klingen, Christoph
Weder di Mauro, Beatrice
Zettelmeyer, Jeronimo

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Abstract

We estimate ex post returns to emerging market debt by combining secondary-market prices with observed flows based on World Bank data. From 1970–2000, returns averaged 9% per annum, about the same as returns on a ten-year US treasury bond. This reflects the combined effect of the 1980s debt crisis and much higher returns during 1989–2000. Annual returns since 1986 have been less volatile than emerging market equity returns but more volatile than returns on US corporate or high-yield bonds. Unlike returns on these bonds, however, emerging market debt returns do not seem significantly correlated with US or world stock markets.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4374.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4374

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Related research
Keywords: crises; returns capital flows; sovereign debt;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Symposium on New Institutions for Developing Country Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 3-6, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Isabel Schnabel & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard D. Haas & Steven A. Symansky & Michael P. Dooley, 1992. "A Note on Burden Sharing Among Creditors," IMF Working Papers 92/21, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 19-50, January.
  8. G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2002. "Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally?," NBER Working Papers 8994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1998. "Re-Emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm111, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," Working Paper Series rwp06-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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