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Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals

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  • Galina Hale

Abstract

The costs of debt crises are not invariant to the foreign debt instrument composition: bank loans or bonds. The lending boom of the 1990s witnessed considerable variation over time and across countries in the debt instrument used by emerging market (EM) borrowers. This paper tests how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the composition of international debt instruments used by EM borrowers. Analysis of micro-level data using ordered probability model shows that macroeconomic fundamentals explain a significant share of variation in the ratio of bonds to loans for private borrowers, but not for the sovereigns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm343.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2003
Date of revision: 01 Apr 2007
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm343

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Keywords: Emerging Markets; Foreign Debt; Debt Composition; Country Risk;

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  1. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  3. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October.
  4. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-16, July.
  6. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May.
  7. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas, 2000. "Equity, Bonds, and Bank Debt: Capital Structure and Financial Market Equilibrium under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 324-351, April.
  8. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. " Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-400, September.
  9. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 341-69, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2006. "Why doesn’t Asia have bigger bond markets?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asian bond markets: issues and prospects, volume 30, pages 40-77 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Issam Hallak & Paul Schure, 2011. "Why Larger Lenders Obtain Higher Returns: Evidence from Sovereign Syndicated Loans," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 427-453, 06.
  3. Claessens, Stijn & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "International Financial Integration through Equity Markets: Which Firms from Which Countries Go Global?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," International Finance Discussion Papers 878, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Galina Hale & Carlos Arteta, 2007. "Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: credit crunch or demand effect?," Working Paper Series 2007-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2004. "Why Dones't Asia have the biger bond markets," Working Papers 242004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2012. "International Reserves and the Composition of Equity Capital Inflows," Working Papers 90, Institute of Empirical Economic Research.
  8. Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2008. "Evidence on the External Finance Premium from the US and Emerging Asian Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 142008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Winfried Koeniger & Matthieu Bussiere & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Currency Mismatch, Uncertainty and Debt Structure," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 181, Econometric Society.
  10. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Winfried Koeniger, 2004. "Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure," Working Paper Series 409, European Central Bank.
  11. Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2010. "What Effect Has Bond Market Development in Emerging Asia Had on the Issuance of Corporate Bonds?," Working Papers 182010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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