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Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: credit crunch or demand effect?

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  • Carlos Arteta
  • Galina Hale

Abstract

Currency crises of the past decade highlighted the importance of balance-sheet effects of currency crises. In credit-constrained markets such effects may lead to further declines in credit. Controlling for a host of fundamentals, we find a systematic decline in foreign credit to emerging market private firms of about 25% in the first year following currency crises, which we define as large changes in real value of the currency. This decline is especially large in the first five months, lessens in the second year and disappears entirely by the third year. We identify the effects of currency crises on the demand and supply of credit and find that the decline in the supply of credit is persistent and contributes to about 8% decline in credit for the first two years, while the 35% decline in demand lasts only five months.

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  • Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2007. "Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: credit crunch or demand effect?," Working Paper Series 2007-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-02
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    3. Lan, Jun & Malik, Arunima & Lenzen, Manfred & McBain, Darian & Kanemoto, Keiichiro, 2016. "A structural decomposition analysis of global energy footprints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 436-451.
    4. Galina Hale, 2011. "Evidence on financial globalization and crisis: capital raisings," Working Paper Series 2011-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    6. Alexey Ponomarenko & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2013. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 221-243, September.
    7. Qian, Xingwang & Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "International reserves and the maturity of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 399-418.
    8. Camilo González & Luisa F. Silva & Carmiña O. Vargas & Andrés M. Velasco, 2013. "An exploration on interbank markets and the operational framework of monetary policy in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 782, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Rui Esteves & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1515-1545, October.
    10. Javier Gómez Restrepo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Bohorquez, 2013. "Assessing Reserve Adequacy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 10981, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Jędrzej Białkowski & Jacek Jakubowski, 2017. "Determinants of Trading Activity on the Single-Stock Futures Market: Evidence from the Eurex Exchange," Working Papers in Economics 17/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    12. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Abbassi, Puriya & Bräuning, Falk, 2020. "Real effects of foreign exchange risk migration: Evidence from matched firm-bank microdata," Discussion Papers 53/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Lucie Režňáková & Svatopluk Kapounek, 2015. "Is There a Credit Crunch in the Czech Republic?," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 995-1003.
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    17. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
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    19. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    20. Fedorova, Ye. & Lukasevich, I., 2012. "Index of Exchange Market Pressure (EMP): Specifics of Emerging Markets," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 51-66.
    21. Alexey Ponomarenko & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2013. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 221-243, September.
    22. Sotelsek, Daniel F. & Pavón, Lilianne, 2008. "The relation between foreign exchange and banking crises in emerging countries: information and expectations problems," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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