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Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

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Author Info
Philippe Martin
Hélène Rey

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Abstract

This paper develops a theory of financial crisis based on the demand side of the economy. We analyze the impact of financial and trade globalizations on asset prices, investment and the possibility of self-fulfilling financial crashes. In a two-country model, we show that financial and trade globalizations have different effects on asset prices, investment and income in the emerging market and in the industrialized country. Whereas trade globalization always has a positive effect on the emerging market, financial globalization may not, especially when trade costs are high. For intermediate levels of financial transaction costs and high levels of trade costs, pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and may lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets of the emerging market. Such a crash in asset prices is accompanied by a current account reversal, a drop in income and investment and more market incompleteness. We show that countries with lower income are more prone to such demand-based financial crashes. Our model can replicate the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets. Our results strongly suggest that emerging markets should liberalize trade in goods before trade in assets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11550.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11550

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2005. "How Does Financial Liberalization affect Economic Growth?," Seminar Papers 736, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vasco Cúrdia, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Sudden Stops," International Finance 0510025, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," CEPR Discussion Papers 6032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Aaron Tornell, . "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth (March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 408, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Thierry Tressel & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Financial Globalization and the Governance of Domestic Financial Intermediaries," IMF Working Papers 07/47, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giorgia Albertin, 2008. "Regionalism or Multilateralism? A Political Economy Choice," IMF Working Papers 08/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "The Drivers of Financial Globalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp238, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Joshua Aizenman, 2002. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Working Papers 8900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Coeurdacier , Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "The geography of asset holdings: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 202, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  13. Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows towards emerging countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0817, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  14. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2006. "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth," NBER Working Papers 12806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Integration: A European Perspective," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp265, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  16. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2008. "International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Sergio L. Schmukler & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2003. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 03/34, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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