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Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?

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Author Info
Barry Eichengreen
Muge Adalet

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Abstract

Using panel data and case studies, we analyze the pre-1970 history of international capital flows and current account reversals. Considering a sample of emerging markets and advanced economies with per capita GDPs at least 60 per cent those of the lead country, we show that the incidence of reversals has been unusually great in recent years. The only prior period that matched the last three decades in terms of the frequency and magnitude of reversals was the 1920s and 1930s, decades notorious for the instability of capital flows. In contrast, reversals were both less common and smaller in the Bretton Woods and pre-World War I gold standard eras.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11634.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11634

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
N65 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - Asia including Middle East

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  1. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 225-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. North, Douglass C, 1991. "Institutions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 97-112, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 10277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Banco de España Working Papers 0638, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?," NBER Working Papers 11669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2005. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They are, the Harder They Fall?," NBER Working Papers 11823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 27-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment - insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Commentary : the end of large current account deficits : 1970-2002 : are there lessons for the United States?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 269-276. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Working Papers 12193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2007. "The impact of the National Bank of Romania Monetary Policy on the Balance of Payments," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 26-43, June. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2006. "Chapter 2: Global Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 50-67, 03. [Downloadable!]
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