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Current account adjustment in industrialized countries

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Caroline L. Freund

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Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrialized countries. We identify twenty-five episodes in which a large sustained improvement in the current account occurred between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5 percent of GDP, that it is associated with slowing income growth and a 10-20 percent real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in both the net international investment position and the budget deficit-GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results suggest that current account reversals in industrialized countries are largely a function of the business cycle.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 692.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:692

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Related research
Keywords: Balance of payments ; Business cycles;

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  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "Trade adjustment and the composition of trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 859, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Aurora Ascione, 2007. "Non-Price Competition and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/54, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dr Anthony J. Makin, 2003. "Feasible Limits For External Deficits And Debt," Discussion Papers Series 321, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment: Some New Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2005. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They are, the Harder They Fall?," NBER Working Papers 11823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Fernando Pérez de Gracia & Juncal Cuñado, . "Intertemporal Current Account and Productivity Shocks: Evidence for Some European Countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2004. "Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine," Working Papers 04-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jens R. Clausen & Magda E. Kandil, 2005. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/56, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jonathan H. Wright & Joseph E. Gagnon, 2006. "Predicting sharp depreciations in industrial country exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 881, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca L Driver, . "Current accounts, net foreign assets and the implications of cyclical factors," Bank of England working papers 173, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment - insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Zoltán M. Jakab, 2006. "Consequences of global imbalance corrections for Hungary," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(2), pages 27-34, December. [Downloadable!]
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Working Papers 12193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  18. Edwin Truman, 2005. "Budget and external deficits: not twins but the same family," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  19. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  20. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "Will the Bretton Woods 2 regime unravel soon? the risk of a hard landing in 2005-2006," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  21. De Lima, Gabrielle & Moura, Guilherme & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2007. "US Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rate Tax," MPRA Paper 3908, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  22. Edwin M. Truman, 2005. "Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP05-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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