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Reassessment Of Currency Index By Fundamentals

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Author Info

  • Hiroya Akiba

    (School of Political Science & Economics, Waseda University)

  • Yonghui Jia

    (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University)

Abstract

We examine empirical consistency of the fundamentals in (1) the Middle and South American and (2) the Asian currency crises with the first-generation model, using panel data. We also evaluate our model by forecasting, and examine the differences between the two currency crises in terms of fundamentals. Some differences in explanatory power between fundamentals suggest that we should consider other factors in addition to our fundamentals. Dividing data into the two countries groups manifests that the causes were slightly different. The in-sample and out-of-sample tests indicate that our model could better predict the Middle and South American currency crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for AEF in its journal Annals of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 65-93

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Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2007:v:8:i:1:p:65-93

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Related research

Keywords: Currency crisis; Fundamentals; Panel data;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Inci Ötker, 1994. "Exchange Market Pressures and Speculative Capital Flows in Selected European Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/21, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  18. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies - How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
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