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Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets

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  • Graciela L. Kaminsky

Abstract

The crises in Mexico, Thailand, and Russia in the 1990s spread quite rapidly to countries as far apart as South Africa and Pakistan. In the aftermath of these crises, many emerging economies lost access to international capital markets. Using data on international primary issuance, this paper studies the determinants of contagion and sudden stops following those crises. The results indicate that contagion and sudden stops tend to occur in economies with financial fragility and current account problems. They also show that high integration in international capital markets exposes countries to sudden stops even in the absence of domestic vulnerabilities.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14249.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Publication status: published as Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2008. "Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 107-130, December.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14249

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," Working Paper Series WP-99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2008. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-292.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Claessens, Stijn & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "How does foreign entry affect the domestic banking market?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1918, The World Bank.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  7. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  8. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4669671, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
  3. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cedric Tille, 2011. "The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 382011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Kalin Tintchev, 2013. "Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 13/14, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5569, The World Bank.

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