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Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances

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  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver
  • Farhi, Emmanuel
  • Caballero, Ricardo J.

Abstract

The current financial crisis has its origins in global asset scarcity, which led to large capital flows toward the United States and to the creation of asset bubbles that eventually burst. In its first phase the crash exacerbated the shortage of assets in the world economy, which triggered a partial re-creation of the bubble in commodities markets, and oil markets in particular. This bubble in turn led to an increase in petrodollars seeking financial assets in the United States, which became a source of stability for the U.S. external balance. The second phase of the crisis is more conventional and began to emerge in the summer of 2008, when it became apparent that the financial crisis would permeate the real economy and sharply slow global growth. This slowdown worked to reverse the tight commodity market conditions required for a bubble to develop, ultimately destroying the commodity bubble.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard University Department of Economics in its series Scholarly Articles with number 3229095.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3229095

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  1. Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Bubbles in Prices of Exhaustible Resources," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001414, David K. Levine.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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