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Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries

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  • Olivier Blanchard

Abstract

Tokom poslednjih 20 godina, neravnoteže tekućeg bilansa bogatih zemalja su se neprestano povećavale. Iako deficit tekućeg bilansa SAD dominira brojevima i vestima, i druge zemlje, posebno u okviru evrozone, takođe beleže veliki deficit. Deficiti ovih zemalja se razlikuju od deficita latinoameričkih zemalja sa početka osamdesetih godina ili meksičkog deficita sa početka devedesetih godina. Deficiti koje beleže bogate zemlje uglavnom odražavaju odluke o privatnoj štednji i investicijama, a fiskalni deficiti često imaju marginalnu ulogu; deficiti se uglavnom finansiraju putem akcija, stranih direktnih investicija i obveznica u sopstvenoj valuti, pre nego putem bankarskih pozajmica. Ipak, čini se da ove zemlje u velikoj meri dele zabrinutost u vezi sa veličinom deficita i eventualnom neophodnošću državne intervencije. Svrha mog predavanja jeste da se ispita logika tog argumenta. Postavljam sledeće pitanje: pretpostavimo da deficit odražava odluke o privatnoj štednji i investicijama. Takođe, pretpostavimo da pojedinci i firme imaju racionalna očekivanja. Da li vlada treba da interveniše, i ako treba kako to da uradi? Da bih odgovorio na pitanje, utvrdio sam jednostavnu polaznu tačku. U toj polaznoj tački, prvi ishod je i najbolji i nema potrebe niti opravdanja za intervenciju vlade. Potom uvodim jednostavne poremećaje na tržištima robe, rada ili finansijskim tržištima, i u svakom slučaju karakterišem ravnotežu. Izvodim optimalnu politiku i implikacije po tekući bilans. Pokazujem da optimalna politika može ali i ne mora dovesti do manjih deficita tekućeg bilansa. Ovaj model i njegova proširenja posmatram kao prvi krug istraživanja. Jasniji zaključci zahtevaju bolje razumevanje tačne prirode i stepena poremećaja, a to nam nedostaje. Međutim, radi unapređenja kvaliteta tekuće debate, potrebno je da bolje shvatimo ove aspekte. JEL: E62,F41.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(2), pages 127-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:54:y:2007:i:2:p:127-158:id:276
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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