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Growth and Adjustment Challenge for the Euro Area

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  • Philip R. Lane

    ()
    (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

This paper reviews the growth record of the member countries of the euro area and assesses the outlook for future economic performance. We describe how the external and fiscal adjustment challenges facing the euro periphery amplify the growth risks facing these countries. We address how growth prospects can be improved by shifts in the macroeconomic policy mix, carefully-timed structural reforms, debt restructuring and the resolution of the existential crisis facing the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp426.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp426

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Keywords: euro crisis; structural reform; external adjustment;

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  1. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  2. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
  3. André Faria & Philip R. Lane & Paolo Mauro & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "The Shifting Composition of External Liabilities," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 480-490, 04-05.
  4. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
  5. Martin Raiser & Indermit S. Gill, 2012. "Golden Growth : Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6016, January.
  6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  7. Lane, Philip R. & Pels, Barbara, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 78, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-72, May.
  10. Romain Bouis & Orsetta Causa & Lilas Demmou & Romain Duval & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms: An Empirical Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 949, OECD Publishing.
  11. Vahagn Galstyan and Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp257, IIIS.
  12. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone," NBER Working Papers 18899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976--2001," IMF Working Papers 02/133, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Raphael Anton Auer, 2012. "What Drives Target2 Balances? Evidence From a Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2012-15, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," European Economy - Economic Papers 497, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  16. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(2), pages 127-158, June.
  17. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden stops in the euro area," Policy Contributions 718, Bruegel.
  19. Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2012. "The design of fiscal adjustments," NBER Working Papers 18423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Pisani, M., 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Greater Competition In The Service Sector: The Case Of Italy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 677-708, November.
  21. Oleg Itskhoki & Gita Gopinath & Emmanuel Farhi, 2011. "Fiscal Devaluations," 2011 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
  23. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
  24. Thomas Laryea, 2010. "Approaches to Corporate Debt Restructuring in the Wake of Financial Crises," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/02, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Robert Gillanders & Karl Whelan, 2010. "Open For Business? Institutions, Business Environment and Economic Development," Working Papers 201040, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  26. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
  27. Thomas Laryea & Luc Laeven, 2009. "Principles of Household Debt Restructuring," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/15, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Andrea Raffo, 2013. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1092, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2013. "The financial resource curse," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51557, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  30. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  31. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
  32. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2013. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 478, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  33. Shiller, Robert J., 1998. "Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294184.
  34. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
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