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East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development

In: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18

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  • Hiro Ito
  • Menzie Chinn

Abstract

We investigate the role of budget balances, financial development and openness, in the evolution of global imbalances. Financial development -- or the lack thereof -- has received considerable attention as a possible contributing factor to the development of persistent and expanding current account imbalances. Several observers have argued that the depth and sophistication of US capital markets have caused capital to flow from relatively underdeveloped East Asian financial markets. In this paper, we extend our previous work by examining the effect of different types and aspects of financial development. Our cross-country analysis, encompassing a sample of 19 industrialized countries and 70 developing countries for the period of 1986 through 2005, yields a number of new results. First, we confirm a role for budget balances in industrial countries when bond markets are incorporated. Second, empirically both credit to the private sector and stock market capitalization appear to be equally important determinants of current account behavior. Third, while increases in the size of financial markets induce a decline in the current account balance in industrial countries, the reverse is more often the case for developing countries, especially when other measures of financial development are included. However, because of nonlinearities incorporated into the specifications, this characterization is conditional upon other factors. Fourth, a greater degree of financial openness is typically associated with a smaller current account balance in developing countries.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2009. "Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_07-2, July.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 0432.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0432

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    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    2. Richard H. Clarida, 2006. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kose, Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," CEPR Discussion Papers 5842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    5. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-93, March.
    7. Lee,J. & Chinn,M.D., 2004. "Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G-7 countries," Working papers 11, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    9. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "Introduction to "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment"," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
    12. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization," IMF Working Papers 06/189, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Simon Johnson & John McMillan & Christopher Woodruff, 2002. "Property Rights and Finance," NBER Working Papers 8852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "Financial Markets And The Allocation Of Capital," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm123, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
    16. Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April.
    17. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Do differences in financial development explain the global pattern of current account imbalances?," International Finance Discussion Papers 923, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Global Imbalances and Capital Account Openness: an Empirical Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00861161, HAL.
    3. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00641456 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sabine Herrmann & Joern Kleinert, 2014. "Lucas Paradox and Allocation Puzzle - Is the euro area different?," Graz Economics Papers 2014-01, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    5. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2009. "Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 158, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
    7. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June.
    8. Herrmann, Sabine & Kleinert, Jörn, 2014. "Lucas paradox and allocation puzzle: Is the euro area different?," Discussion Papers 06/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    9. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2011. "The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0821, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
      [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
      ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    13. Ismail, Aisha & Rashid, Kashif, 2013. "Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 524-531.
    14. Ramon Moreno & Marjorie Santos, 2008. "Pension systems in EMEs: implications for capital flows and financial markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 45-69 Bank for International Settlements.

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