Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia
AbstractAn integral part of global current account imbalances is the large and persistent current account surplus developing Asia has run since the 1997–1998 Asian crisis. A country’s current account surplus is, by definition, equal to its net saving. The central objective of this paper is to investigate the extent to which the saving and investment rate of Asian countries can be explained by the underlying fundamental determinants of saving and investment such as gross domestic product growth and demographic factors. Our empirical analysis yields two key findings. First, we find stronger evidence of oversaving than underinvestment in the region. Second, we find stronger evidence of overinvestment prior to the Asian crisis than underinvestment after the Asian crisis. This suggests that the key to rebalancing Asian growth toward domestic sources lies in promoting consumption rather than investment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 158.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Saving; investment; current account balance; global imbalance; Asia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2010-04-17 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2010-04-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-04-17 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
- NEP-SEA-2010-04-17 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
- Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2007.
"East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development,"
NBER Working Papers
13364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2009. "East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 117-150 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
- Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley & Lillie Lam, 2013. "The Roles of Saving, Investment and the Renminbi in Rebalancing the Chinese Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 72-84, 02.
- Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "The Volatility Trap: Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk," IMF Working Papers 12/134, International Monetary Fund.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012.
"The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2011. "The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0821, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2011. "The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," NBER Working Papers 17581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adams, Charles & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of Global Imbalances: Perspective from Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 157, Asian Development Bank.
- Ismail, Aisha & Rashid, Kashif, 2013. "Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 524-531.
- Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi S. Imai & Ganesh Thapa & Woojin Kang, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus, Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Asia and the Pacific Region: Evidence from Panel Data," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0919, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Peeters, Marga, 2012. "Asymmetric demographic pressure in South-Mediterranean versus North-Mediterranean economies and its impact on international gross capital flows," MPRA Paper 39635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria Guia S. de Guzman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.