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Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach

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  • Blanchard, Olivier J
  • Giavazzi, Francesco

Abstract

Our paper is an attempt to define the contours of the right macroeconomic strategy for China. In a nutshell, we believe that the package includes a decrease in saving, with a focus on private saving, an increase in the supply of services, in particular health services, and an appreciation of the RMB. This is why we refer to this strategy as a 'three-handed approach': action on the fiscal and budgetary front, accompanied by currency revaluation. We start by asking how the Chinese economy got to where it is - what the strategy has been since the beginning of the reforms, and what the main characteristics of the economy are today. We then ask what is the desirable path for the future, and which are the main policy tradeoffs implied by such a path. Finally, we put the various pieces together to describe what we believe is a consistent policy package.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5403.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5403

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Keywords: China; economic development; international economics;

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  1. Jones, Derek C. & Li, Cheng & Owen, Ann L., 2003. "Growth and regional inequality in China during the reform era," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 186-200.
  2. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What’s So Special about China’s Exports?," Working Papers id:410, eSocialSciences.
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  7. Wagstaff, Adam & Pradhan, Menno, 2005. "Health insurance impacts on health and nonmedical consumption in a developing country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3563, The World Bank.
  8. Eswar Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2005. "Controlled Capital Account Liberalization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/7, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
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  11. Fang, Cheng & Zhang, Xiaobo & Fan, Shenggen, 2002. "Emergence of urban poverty and inequality in China: evidence from household survey," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 430-443, December.
  12. Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
  13. Albert G. Z. Hu & Gary H. Jefferson & Qian Jinchang, 2005. "R&D and Technology Transfer: Firm-Level Evidence from Chinese Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 780-786, November.
  14. Zhu, Nong, 2002. "The impacts of income gaps on migration decisions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 213-230.
  15. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2003. "Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China: Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 386-400.
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