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Shifts in Portfolio Preferences of International Investors: An Application to Sovereign Wealth Funds

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  • Sá, F.
  • Viani, F.

Abstract

Reversals in capital inflows can have severe economic consequences. This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyse the effect on interest rates, asset prices, investment, consumption, output, the exchange rate and the current account of a shift in portfolio preferences of foreign investors. The model has two countries and two asset classes (equities and bonds). It is characterized by imperfect substitutability between assets and allows for endogenous adjustment in interest rates and asset prices. Therefore, it accounts for capital gains arising from equity price movements, in addition to valuation effects caused by changes in the exchange rate. To illustrate the mechanics of the model, we calibrate it to analyse the conse- quences of an increase in the importance of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). Specifically, we ask what would happen if 'excess' reserves held by Emerging Markets were transferred from central banks to SWFs. We look separately at two diversification paths: one in which SWFs keep the same allocation across bonds and equities as central banks, but move away from dollar assets (path 1); and another in which they choose the same currency composition as central banks, but shift from US bonds to US equities (path 2). In path 1, the dollar depreciates and US net debt falls on impact and increases in the long run. In path 2, the dollar depreciates and US net debt increases in the long run. In both cases, there is a reduction in the 'exorbitant privilege', i.e., the excess return the US receives on its assets over what it pays on its liabilities. The model is applicable to other episodes in which foreign investors change the composition of their portfolios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1029.

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Date of creation: 29 May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1029

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Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

Related research

Keywords: portfolio preferences; sudden stops; imperfect substitutability; global imbalances; sovereign wealth funds;

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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkele qt7xc0g8mm, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2007. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Working Papers 13483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Current account balance and dollar standard: Exploring the linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-94.
  2. Sá, F. & Wieladek, T., 2011. "Monetary Policy, Capital Inflows, and the Housing Boom," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 1141, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Sa, Filipa & Towbin, Pascal & wieladek, tomasz, 2011. "Low interest rates and housing booms: the role of capital inflows, monetary policy and financial innovation," Bank of England working papers 411, Bank of England.

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