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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices

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Author Info
Jeffrey A. Frankel

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Abstract

Commodity prices are back. This paper looks at connections between monetary policy, and agricultural and mineral commodities. We begin with the monetary influences on commodity prices, first for a large country such as the United States, then smaller countries. The claim is that low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices. The theory is an analogy with Dornbusch overshooting. The relationship between real interest rates and real commodity prices is also supported empirically. One channel through which this effect is accomplished is a negative effect of interest rates on the desire to carry commodity inventories. The paper concludes with a consideration of implications for monetary policy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12713.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12713

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 1103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1058-1086, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Explorations in the Gold Standard and Related Policies for Stabilizing the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 111-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate After Argentina," NBER Working Papers 9257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barsky, Robert B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 528-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Arthur M. Okun, 1975. "Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1975-2), pages 351-402. [Downloadable!]
  13. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March. [Downloadable!]
  14. Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Breeden, Douglas T, 1980. " Consumption Risk in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 503-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 14521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2008. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century," MPRA Paper 11862, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dieter Hess & He Huang & Alexandra Niessen, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 127-146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shaun K. Roache, 2008. "Commodities and the Market Price of Risk," IMF Working Papers 08/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. C. Peter Timmer, 2009. "Did Speculation Affect World Rice Prices?," Working Papers 09-07, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
    [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multiva    ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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