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A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    ()
    (Harvard University)

  • Saiki, Ayako

    ()
    (Brandeis University)

Abstract

The debate over monetary standards and exchange rate regimes for developing countries is as wide open as ever. On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates-monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks-have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs to the dollar, for example, are dangerous when the dollar appreciates relative to other export markets. This study explores a new proposal that countries specialized in the export of a particular commodity should peg their currency to that commodity. When the dollar price of the commodity on world markets falls, the dollar exchange rate of the local currency would fall in tandem. The country would reap the best of both worlds: the advantage of a nominal anchor for monetary policy, together with the automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks that floating rates claim to deliver. We conduct a set of counter-factual experiments. For each of a list of countries specialized in particular mineral or agricultural commodities, what would have happened, over the last 30 years, if it had pegged its currency to that commodity, as compared to pegging to the dollar, yen, or mark, or as compared to whatever exchange rate policy it actually followed historically? We compute under these scenarios the price of the commodity in local terms, and we then simulate the implications for exports. Illustrative of the results is that some victims of financial difficulties in the late 1990s might have achieved a stimulus to exports precisely when it was most needed, without having to go through wrenching currency collapses, if they had been on regimes of pegging to their export commodity: South Africa to gold or platinum, Nigeria and Indonesia to oil, Chile to copper, Argentina to wheat, Colombia to coffee, and so on

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): 17 (2002)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 417-448

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Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0202

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Web page: http://econo.sejong.ac.kr/
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Related research

Keywords: Money; Nominal anchor; Peg; Terms of Trade; Agricultural Commodities; Mineral Commodities; Gold;

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Cited by:
  1. Gilles Duffrenot & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2010. "Pegging the future West African single currency in regard to internal/external competitiveness: a counterfactual analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp974, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2009. "On Global Currencies," Working Paper Series rwp09-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity Exporters in Latin America," Scholarly Articles 9642641, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Ayako Saiki, 2005. "Asymmetric Effect of Currency Union for Developing Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 227-247, July.
  7. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Selahattin Togay, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy For Postwar Iraq," Working Papers 488, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2009.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2005. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 495-508, June.
  9. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1324-1336, September.
  10. Abdelghani, Echchabi & Osman, Sayid & Isares, Mahamad & Khalid, Sorhiran & Zulhilmi, Zulkifli, 2011. "The implementation of Gulf Dinar among the GCC member countries and its possible impacts," MPRA Paper 28245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 16362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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