Negative Alchemy? Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises
In: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
AbstractCrony capitalism and self-fulfilling expectations by international creditors are often suggested as two rival explanations for currency crisis. This paper examines a possible linkage between the two that has not been explored much in the literature: corruption may affect a country's composition of capital inflows in a way that makes it more likely to experience a currency crisis that is triggered/aided by a sudden reversal of international capital flows. We find robust evidence that poor public governance is associated with a higher loan-to-FDI ratio. Such a composition of capital flows has been identified as being associated with a higher incidence of a currency crisis. We also find some weaker evidence that poor public governance is associated with a country's inability to borrow internationally in its own currency. The latter is also associated with a higher incidence of a currency crisis. To sum up, even though crony capitalism does not forecast the timing of a crisis, it can nevertheless increase its likelihood. This paper illustrates a particular channel through which this can happen.
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Other versions of this item:
- Shang-Jin Wei & Yi Wu, 2001. "Negative Alchemy? Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 8187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shang-Jin Wei, 2000.
"Natural Openness and Good Government,"
NBER Working Papers
7765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "Why is Corruption So Much More Taxing Than Tax? Arbitrariness Kills," NBER Working Papers 6255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, NBER-EASE Volume 9," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_00-2, October.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1997.
"How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?,"
NBER Working Papers
6030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-11, February.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 63, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Why Does China Attract So Little Foreign Direct Investment?," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, NBER-EASE Volume 9, pages 239-265 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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