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Speculation-led growth and fragility in Turkey: Does EU make a difference or "can it happen again"?

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  • Özlem Onaran

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the pattern of speculation-led growth in Turkey. It is dependent on international capital flows, whose continuity becomes more and more critical given the current account deficit, which is estimated to reach 6.1% as a ratio to GDP at the end of 2005. The paper assesses the sustainability of this speculation-led growth in the context of EU enlargement and compares the current state of fragility with former crises in Turkey as well as in East Asia and Latin America. Following a severe financial crisis in 2001, Turkey has entered a new phase of fragile growth led by boom-euphoric expectations. The paper aims at explaining this new phase and the evolution of the risk perceptions of both the creditors as well as the debtors in this "speculation game" based on the post-Keynesian/Minskyan concepts of endogenous expectations and financial fragility.

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Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp093.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp093

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  1. Carmen Fillat Castejón & Julia Woerz, 2006. "Good or bad? The influence of FDI on output growth. An industry-level analysis," Documentos de Trabajo, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza dt2006-01, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
  2. Burc Ulengin & Nurhan Yenturk, 2001. "Impacts of capital inflows on aggregate spending categories: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1321-1328.
  3. Joze Mencinger, 2003. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Always Enhance Economic Growth?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 491-508, November.
  4. Ozlem Onaran, 2002. "Measuring wage flexibility: the case of Turkey before and after structural adjustment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 767-781.
  5. Jan A. Kregel, 1998. "Yes, 'It' Did Happen Again: A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_234, Levy Economics Institute.
  6. Cem Baslevent & Ozlem Onaran, 2003. "Are Married Women in Turkey More Likely to Become Added or Discouraged Workers?," LABOUR, CEIS, CEIS, vol. 17(3), pages 439-458, 09.
  7. Philip Arestis, 2002. "Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 237-260, March.
  8. Ozlem Onaran & Nurhan Yenturk, 2001. "Do Low Wages Stimulate Investment? An analysis of the relationship between distribution and investment in Turkish private manufacturing industry," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 359-374.
  9. �Zlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2005. "Two Different Export-Oriented Growth Strategies: Accumulation and Distribution in Turkey and South Korea," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 65-89, January.
  10. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2006. "The effect of FDI and foreign trade on wages in the Central and Eastern European Countries in the post-transition era: A sectoral analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp094, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  11. Baslevent, Cem & Onaran, Ozlem, 2004. "The Effect of Export-Oriented Growth on Female Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1375-1393, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Mihai Macovei, 2009. "Growth and economic crises in Turkey: leaving behind a turbulent past?," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 386, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Jan Toporowski & Giovanni Cozzi, 2006. "The Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_485, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. Thomas Goda, 2013. "The role of income inequality in crisis theories and in the subprime crisis," Working Papers, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG) PKWP1305, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG).

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