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Speculation-led growth and fragility in Turkey: Does EU make a difference or "can it happen again"?

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Author Info
Özlem Onaran () (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the pattern of speculation-led growth in Turkey. It is dependent on international capital flows, whose continuity becomes more and more critical given the current account deficit, which is estimated to reach 6.1% as a ratio to GDP at the end of 2005. The paper assesses the sustainability of this speculation-led growth in the context of EU enlargement and compares the current state of fragility with former crises in Turkey as well as in East Asia and Latin America. Following a severe financial crisis in 2001, Turkey has entered a new phase of fragile growth led by boom-euphoric expectations. The paper aims at explaining this new phase and the evolution of the risk perceptions of both the creditors as well as the debtors in this "speculation game" based on the post-Keynesian/Minskyan concepts of endogenous expectations and financial fragility.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics and B.A., Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp093.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp093

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Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Grabel, Ilene, 1995. "Speculation-Led Economic Development: A Post-Keynesian Interpretation of Financial Liberalization Programmes in the Third World," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 127-49.
  2. Ulengin, Burc & Yenturk, Nurhan, 2001. "Impacts of Capital Inflows on Aggregate Spending Categories: The Case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1321-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Onaran, Uzlem, 2002. "Measuring Wage Flexibility: The Case of Turkey before and after Structural Adjustment," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 767-81, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. ÖZLEM ONARAN & ENGELBERT STOCKHAMMER, 2005. "Two Different Export-Oriented Growth Strategies: Accumulation and Distribution in Turkey and South Korea," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 65-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Özlem Onaran, Nurhan Yentürk, 2001. "Do Low Wages Stimulate Investment? An analysis of the relationship between distribution and investment in Turkish private manufacturing industry," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 359-374, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cem Baslevent & Ozlem Onaran, 2003. "Are Married Women in Turkey More Likely to Become Added or Discouraged Workers?," LABOUR, CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 17(3), pages 439-458, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carmen Fillat Castejon & Julia Wörz, 2006. "Good or Bad? The Influence of FDI on Output Growth: An industry-level analysis," Working Papers 38, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw. [Downloadable!]
  8. J.A. Kregel, 1998. "Yes, "It" Did Happen Again - A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia," Macroeconomics 9805017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2006. "The effect of FDI and foreign trade on wages in the Central and Eastern European Countries in the post-transition era: A sectoral analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp094, Vienna University of Economics and B.A., Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Baslevent, Cem & Onaran, Ozlem, 2004. "The Effect of Export-Oriented Growth on Female Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1375-1393, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Philip Arestis, 2002. "Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 237-260, March.
  12. Joze Mencinger, 2003. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Always Enhance Economic Growth?," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 491-508, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Toporowski & Giovanni Cozzi, 2006. "The Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_485, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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