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A Macrodynamics Of Debt Regimes, Financial Instability And Growth

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  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima
  • Antonio J. A. Meirelles

Abstract

It is developed a dynamic macromodel of utilization and growth of productive capacity, in which the supply of credit-money is endogenous and firms' debt position - and thus the financial fragility of the economy à la Hyman Minsky - is explicitly modeled. The rate of interest is set as a markup over the base rate, which is exogenously determined by the monetary authority. Banking markup varies with changes in economic activity, which is measured by capacity utilization, while firms' debt position varies with the rates of interest, profit and capital accumulation. Regarding dynamics, it is shown the possibility of relating the stability properties of a system with the interest rate and the debt ratio as state variables to the type of minskyan regime - hedge, speculative, Ponzi - which prevails.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 074.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:074

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  1. Antonio J.A. Meirelles & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "Debt, financial fragility, and economic growth: a Post Keynesian macromodel," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(1), pages 93-115, October.
  2. Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2000. "Market concentration and technological innovation in a dynamic model of growth and distribution," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 447-475.
  3. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Antonio J. A. Meirelles, 2003. "Endogenous Banking Markup, Distributional Conflict and Capacity Utilization," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2-3), pages 366-384, 05.
  4. Angbazo, Lazarus, 1997. "Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk, and off-balance sheet banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-87, January.
  5. Selmo Aronovich, 1994. "Uma nota sobre os efeitos da inflação e do nível de atividade sobre o spread bancário," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 48(1), pages 125-140, January.
  6. Lavoie, M., 1993. "Interest Rates in Post-Keynesian Models of Growth and Distribution," Working Papers 9314e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  7. Saunders, Anthony & Schumacher, Liliana, 2000. "The determinants of bank interest rate margins: an international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 813-832, December.
  8. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
  9. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Working Papers Series 46, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Demirguc, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1999. "Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 379-408, May.
  11. Brock, Philip L. & Rojas Suarez, Liliana, 2000. "Understanding the behavior of bank spreads in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-134, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "Finance-dominated capitalism, re-distribution, household debt and financial fragility in a Kaleckian distribution and growth model," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 65(260), pages 11-51.
  2. Datta, Soumya, 2014. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," MPRA Paper 56713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Hiroaki Sasaki & Shinya Fujita, 2012. "Income Distribution, Debt Accumulation, and Financial Fragility in a Kaleckian Model with Labor Supply Constraints," Discussion papers e-12-007, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  4. Soon Ryoo, 2009. "Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-03, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  5. Eckhard Hein & Nina Dodig, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises – long-run tendencies," Working papers wpaper23, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
  6. Yun Kim & Alan Isaac, 2011. "Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo-Kaleckian Synthesis," Working Papers 1108, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  7. Hiroshi Nishi, 2012. "On the Short-run Relationship between the Income Distribution- and Finance-Growth Regimes," Discussion papers e-12-001, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  8. Eckhard Hein, 2010. "Shareholder Value Orientation, Distribution And Growth-Short- And Medium-Run Effects In A Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 302-332, 05.
  9. Porcile, Gabriel & de Souza, Alexandre Gomes & Viana, Ricardo, 2011. "External debt sustainability and policy rules in a small globalized economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-276, September.
  10. Esteban Perez Caldentey & Matias Vernengo, 2013. "Wage and Profit-led Growth: The Limits to Neo-Kaleckian Models and a Kaldorian Proposal," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_775, Levy Economics Institute.
  11. Shinya Fujita & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Financialization and its Long-run Macroeconomic Effects in a Kalecki-Minsky Model," Discussion papers e-11-001, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  12. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi, 2010. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis:a Stochastic Microfoundation Framework," Research Paper Series 273, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  13. Antonio J. A. Meirelles & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2004. "Debt, Financial Fragility And Economic Growth: A Post-Keynesian Macromodel," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 094, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  14. Hiroaki Sasaki & Shinya Fujita, 2010. "The Importance of the Retention Ratio in a Kaleckian Model with Debt Accumulation," Discussion papers e-10-008, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  15. Datta, Soumya, 2012. "Cycles and Crises in a Model of Debt-financed Investment-led Growth," MPRA Paper 50200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2012.

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