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Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity?: a scenario analysis

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  • Hamid Faruqee
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Dirk Muir
  • Paolo Pesenti

Abstract

In the evolving analysis of global imbalances, the possibility that countries will resort to increased protectionism is often mentioned but rarely analyzed. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of a shift to protectionist policies through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy that encompasses four regional blocs. Simulation exercises are carried out to assess the consequences of imposing uniform and discriminatory tariffs on trading partners as well as the consequences of tariff retaliation. We also discuss a scenario in which a ?globalization backlash? lowers the degree of competition in import-competing sectors, and compare the implications of higher markups in the product and labor markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 268.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:268

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Keywords: Tariff ; Imports ; International trade ; Competition;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rene Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2007. "The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)," Technical Reports 98, Bank of Canada.
  2. Selim Elekdag & Ren� Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 297-311, June.
  3. Bartocci, Anna & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2013. "“Green” fuel tax on private transportation services and subsidies to electric energy. A model-based assessment for the main European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages S32-S57.
  4. Yavuz Arslan & Mustafa Kilinc & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2011. "Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Papers 1127, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. Francesco FURLANETTO, 2007. "Fiscal Shocks and the Consumption Response when Wages are Sticky," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 07.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  6. Furlanetto, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and the role of wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 512-527, April.
  7. René Lalonde & Philipp Maier & Dirk Muir, 2009. "Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis," Discussion Papers 09-3, Bank of Canada.
  8. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 22, pages 519-573, 07.
  9. Sandra Gomes & P. Jacquinot & M. Mohr & M. Pisani, 2011. "Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment," Working Papers w201113, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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