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Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment

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  • Sandra Gomes
  • P. Jacquinot
  • M. Mohr
  • M. Pisani

Abstract

We quantitatively assess the macroeconomic effects of country-specific supply-side reforms in the euro area by simulating a large scale multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. We consider reforms in the labor and services markets of Germany (or, alternatively, Portugal) and the rest of the euro area. Our main results are as follows. First, there are benefits from implementing unilateral structural reforms. A reduction of markup by 15 percentage points in the German (Portuguese) labor and services market would induce an increase in the long-run German (Portuguese) output equal to 8.8 (7.8) percent. As reforms are implemented gradually over a period of five years, output would smoothly reach its new long-run level in seven years. Second, cross-country coordination of reforms would add extra benefits to each region in the euro area, by limiting the deterioration of relative prices and purchasing power that a country faces when implementing reforms unilaterally. This is true in particular for a small and open economy such as Portugal. Specifically, in the long run German output would increase by 9.2 percent, Portuguese output by 8.6 percent. Third, cross-country coordination would make the macroeconomic performance of the different regions belonging to the euro area more homogeneous, both in terms of price competitiveness and real activity. Overall, our results suggest that reforms implemented apart by each country in the euro area produce positive effects, cross-country coordination produces larger and more evenly distributed (positive) effects.

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Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w201113.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201113

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Cited by:
  1. In 'T Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2014. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Busl, Claudia & Seymen, Atılım, 2013. "The German labour market reforms in a European context: A DSGE analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-097, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
  4. Romain Bouis & Orsetta Causa & Lilas Demmou & Romain Duval, 2012. "How quickly does structural reform pay off? An empirical analysis of the short-term effects of unemployment benefit reform," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, December.
  5. Gomes, Sandra & Jacquinot, Pascal & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1195, European Central Bank.
  6. Bruno Albuquerque & Cristina Manteu, 2012. "On International Policy Coordination and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Working Papers w201214, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  7. Poilly, Céline & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Evaluating labor market reforms: A normative analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 156-170.
  8. Angelini, Elena & Dieppe, Alistair & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2013. "Learning about wage and price mark-ups in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1512, European Central Bank.
  9. Bergljot Barkbu & Jesmin Rahman & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2012. "Fostering Growth in Europe Now," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/07, International Monetary Fund.

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