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Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment

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Author Info
Selim Elekdag
René Lalonde
Douglas Laxton
Dirk Muir
Paolo Pesenti

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Abstract

This paper develops a five-region version—Canada, a group of oil-exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia, and Japan plus the euro area—of the global economy model encompassing production and trade of crude oil. In the presence of real adjustment costs that reduce the short- and medium-term responses of oil supply and demand, our simulations can account for large endogenous variations of oil prices with large effects on the terms of trade of oil-exporting versus oil-importing countries, and result in significant wealth transfers between regions. This is especially true when we consider a sustained increase in productivity growth or a shift in production technology toward more oil-intensive goods in regions such as emerging Asia. In addition, we study the implications of higher taxes on gasoline, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with a reduction in oil consumption. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 297–311. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.3; published online 25 March 2008

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 297-311
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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:2:p:297-311

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  1. Technology Assessment
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sebastien Jean & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2004. "Regulation and Wage Premia," Working Papers 2004-12, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Rene Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2007. "The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)," Technical Reports 98, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Staff Reports 182, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Patrick Perrier, 2005. "La fonction de production et les données canadiennes," Working Papers 05-20, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area - a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 747, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Paul Fenton & Stephen Murchison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Autumn), pages 5-18. [Downloadable!]
  10. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rene Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2007. "The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)," Technical Reports 98, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: The extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 9911, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. René Lalonde & Philipp Maier & Dirk Muir, 2009. "Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis," Discussion Papers 09-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Banco de España Working Papers 0723, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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