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A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy

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  • Ferrero, Andrea

Abstract

The US external deficits have been the most striking manifestation of global imbalances. This paper investigates the contribution of productivity growth, demographics and fiscal policy in accounting for the evolution of the US external imbalances against industrialized countries during the last three decades. Productivity growth plays a dominant role. Demographics explain a non-negligible and nearly permanent component of the US trade deficit. Furthermore, the international demographic transition is crucial for large US external imbalances to be consistent with the persistent decline of world real interest rates observed in the data. Fiscal policy is of minor importance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 478-490

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:4:p:478-490

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Keywords: Global imbalances Productivity growth Demographic trends Fiscal policy World real interest rates;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Keyu Jin & Stéphane Guibaud & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2013. "Credit constraints and growth in a global economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54261, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 830, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2013. "Imbalances and Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 89-100, June.
  4. David Backus & Thomas Cooley & Espen Henriksen, 2013. "Demography and Low Frequency Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 19465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "House price booms, current account deficits, and low interest rates," Staff Reports 541, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark & Chadwick R. Curtis, 2011. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," 2011 Meeting Papers 529, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Andrea Ferrero & Carlos Carvalho, 2013. "What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?," 2013 Meeting Papers 1163, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. C. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni, 2011. "Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields," IMF Working Papers 11/210, International Monetary Fund.

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